Congratulations, you’ve won!
Consider this, you’ve just won a quiz show and the chance of a million pounds (or the equivalent in your local currency). There’s just one catch, you have to guess which of three doors the cash is hiding behind.
The quiz show host takes you over to the doors and makes a big song and dance about how there’s a million pounds behind one of the doors, but tins of beans behind the two losing ones. Unless you’re a big fan of beans, I’m guessing you’re still trying for the million pounds.
It’s now crunch time and you’ve got to make a decision. This bit is easy as you’ve effectively got a one-in-three chance, unless you believe that fate, luck or something else is guiding your decision. Let’s assume that you pick door number one.
Here comes the twist. The quiz show host now explains that at least one of the remaining two doors must conceal a tin of beans, and he’s going to open that door. With great fanfare, he opens door number two, to reveal a fairly large tin of beans. He then gives you the chance to change your mind. Do you want to stick with your first choice, your gut instinct – or do you want to switch to door number three?
The quiz show host knows which door the million pounds is behind, but his face isn’t giving anything away. Your choice is to stick, or move. What choice do you make?
(I’ll reveal the answer and the reasons in the next blog post, unless anyone fancies trying to beat me to it in the comments)